Viendo archivo del martes, 19 noviembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 323 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Nov 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C4 flare at 19/0737 UTC. Region 191
(S18W68) continues a gradual decay in penumbral coverage and spot
count. Region 198 (S18E28) has shown a slight decrease in penumbral
coverage but an increase in spot count. The leader spot of Region
198 continues to show magnetic complexity that could develop into a
delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 191 and Region 198 have M-class potential.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Coronal hole effects are
expected on day three of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Nov a 22 Nov
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Nov 168 Previsto 20 Nov-22 Nov 165/160/155 Media de 90 Días 19 Nov 175
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Nov 011/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Nov 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 008/012-008/012-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Nov a 22 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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