Viendo archivo del viernes, 25 octubre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 25 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 298 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Oct 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 162 (N26W18) produced a long duration M1.5/1f event at 25/1747 UTC along with multiple C-class flares today. The M1.5/1f flare produced an associated Type II (estimated shock velocity of 389 km/s) and a Type IV radio sweep. SOHO/LASCO imagery was insufficient at the time of this writing to determine whether an earth-directed CME accompanied this flare. This region retains a small delta magnetic structure that has underwent slight decay since yesterday. A disappearing solar filament (approximately 67 heliographic degrees) was seen to dissipate around 25/0600 UTC in the southeast quadrant of the disk. Two separate H-class spot groups were newly assigned today, Regions 170 (S12E65) and 171 (N10E76).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels due to the magnetic complexity of Region 162.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. The large coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere continues to elevate the high speed solar wind (approximate average speed of 700 km/s). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. The coronal hole high speed stream effects should persist through day one and into day two of the forecast period, returning to predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions by day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Oct a 28 Oct
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       25 Oct 173
  Previsto   26 Oct-28 Oct  170/170/170
  Media de 90 Días        25 Oct 179
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 24 Oct  022/047
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 25 Oct  035/040
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  025/025-015/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Oct a 28 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%25%20%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%30%25%
Tormenta Menor15%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%01%

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