Viendo archivo del viernes, 18 octubre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 18 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 291 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Oct 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 162 (N25E71) produced the majority of the optically observed flare activity today, the largest was a C4/Sf event at 18/1927 UTC. The large cluster of spots seen in white-light appears to be all one region (based on current available magnetic data) although the regions proximity to the limb hinders any certainty at this time. Region 149 (N14W46) produced only minor B and C-class flares today. Magnetic analysis shows the return of the weak gamma magnetic structure that once again has become apparent. No other significant changes were seen in the region since yesterday. Region 158 (S08W02) produced a single optically correlated flare, a C1/Sf at 18/0703 UTC. This region retains a beta-gamma magnetic structure and underwent little change during the period. Newly numbered region 163 (S21W10) was assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 162 may have the potential of producing isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated period of active conditions between 18/1500-1800 UTC due in part to the elevated solar wind speeds (550-650 km/s). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels with a chance of isolated active conditions on days one and two due to the elevated solar wind speeds and a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Oct a 21 Oct
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       18 Oct 173
  Previsto   19 Oct-21 Oct  175/175/180
  Media de 90 Días        18 Oct 182
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 17 Oct  008/011
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 18 Oct  010/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  008/012-010/012-006/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Oct a 21 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%25%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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