Viendo archivo del martes, 15 octubre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 288 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Oct 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 149
(N14W07) produced the largest event of the period, an M1/1f flare
occurring at 15/1422 UTC. A filament from central meridian through
the southern hemisphere erupted shortly before this flare and is
believed to have been the trigger for the event. SOHO/LASCO imagery
depicts an associated CME to the event which does not appear to be
earth directed. No significant changes were noted today in the spot
group or the magnetic complexity to this region. Region 140
(S08W52) produced a C1/Sf flare at 15/1326 UTC. Newly numbered
Region 161 (N06E00) was assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 149 has the potential of producing
low level M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A slow, yet
steady, increase in the solar wind speed along with intermittent
periods of southward Bz allowed for the active periods seen today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to active levels. Weak CME passage
effects may occur in response to the solar activity that occurred on
the 14th and may begin on day one and continue into day two of the
forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Oct a 18 Oct
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Oct 177 Previsto 16 Oct-18 Oct 175/170/165 Media de 90 Días 15 Oct 182
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Oct 013/026 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 011/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 015/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Oct a 18 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
< < Ir a la visión general diaria
Últimas noticias
lunes, 22 abril 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
sábado, 23 marzo 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
miércoles, 20 marzo 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Últimos mensajes del foro
Unspecified geomagnetic activity 946IMF - BT strength 8AR3654 1What are these long and thin eruptions? 6AR 3637, 3638, 3643 89
Más temasApoye a SpaceWeatherLive.com!
Mucha gente viene a SpaceWeatherLive para seguir la actividad del Sol o previsión de aurora, pero con esta cantidad de tráfico se incrementan los costos del servidor. ¡Considere hacer una donación si disfruta de SpaceWeatherLive para que podamos mantener el sitio web en línea!
Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 2024/04/25 | M1.3 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 2024/04/19 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 2022/06/08 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| marzo 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 136.2 +28 |