Viendo archivo del viernes, 20 septiembre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Sep 20 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 263 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Sep 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. New Region 126 (S24E62) produced two M-class flares this period. Both were M1/Sf flares, at 20/0512Z and 0928Z, and both were accompanied by minor centimetric bursts. Limb proximity makes it too difficult to accurately assess Region 126's complexity, but initial measurements indicate a D type group with 200 millionths of white light areal coverage. Region 119 (S14W24) continues to grow and the delta configuration is now more pronounced. Despite this region's moderate complexity, flare output has been nothing more than occasional minor C-class flares. Early in the period, a large CME was observed, originating along a filament channel near S30E12. The ejecta does not appear earthward directed. New Regions 127 (S14E19) and 128 (N11E63) were numbered today. Region 127 is in close proximity to Region 122 (S18E21), but the consensus is that these are separate regions.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue at low to moderate levels. Low M-class flares are possible from Regions 119 and 126.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed began the period near 700 km/s following the arrival of a CME earlier yesterday. However, a weak IMF with sustained northward Bz offset any significant impact on the geomagnetic field.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Sep a 23 Sep
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       20 Sep 164
  Previsto   21 Sep-23 Sep  165/160/160
  Media de 90 Días        20 Sep 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 19 Sep  011/013
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 20 Sep  006/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  008/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Sep a 23 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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