Viendo archivo del sábado, 14 septiembre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 257 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Sep 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Analysis of recent data indicating a restructuring of the magnetic field and the materialization of satellite spots warranted the separation of the two main clusters of spots in Region 105 (now centered at S07W18). Newly numbered Region 114 (S12W02) is the trailing portion of spots previously included in Region 105. Region 114 produced the largest flare of the period, a C4.5/Sf at 14/1831 UTC, and at the time of this writing, data shows only a very weak delta class spot remaining indicating continued decay of this region. Region 105 produced several C-class events today, the largest was a C4.1/Sf flare occurring at 14/1453 UTC, this region has also shown decay during the period. H-alpha imagery suggests both these regions were simultaneously responsible for the intermittent and slightly elevated x-ray flux seen during the latter part of the day. The remaining numbered regions were quiet. New Region 115 (S03E45) was also assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 105 and 114 are both capable of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed stream effects subsided near mid-period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded event threshold at 14/1130 UTC and remains at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet to unsettled conditions throughout the forecast period. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels during much of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Sep a 17 Sep
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 Sep 207
  Previsto   15 Sep-17 Sep  200/195/190
  Media de 90 Días        14 Sep 176
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 13 Sep  009/016
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 14 Sep  008/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Sep a 17 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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