Viendo archivo del miércoles, 21 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 233 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 69 (S08W58)
produced an X1/1b event at 21/0534 UTC with an associated Type II
radio sweep. This region continues to produce the majority of
C-class and M-class events and maintains its beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 69 still posses the potential for an
isolated major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm
conditions. The ACE satellite observed an extended period of
southward Bz in the solar wind from 20/2048-21/1247 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active levels are still
possible as a result of the solar activity from Region 69 over the
past several days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Aug a 24 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Aug 220 Previsto 22 Aug-24 Aug 220/215/215 Media de 90 Días 21 Aug 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Aug 016/023 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Aug 034/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 012/015-012/012-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Aug a 24 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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