Viendo archivo del domingo, 18 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 230 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 69
(S08W39) produced three M-class events, the largest an M2.3 at
18/1005 UTC (optically correlated via SOHO/LASCO EIT195 imagery).
Region 69 has remained unchanged in area coverage and multiple
magnetic delta configurations. Spot count has increased to 74 spots
due to the slight dissolution to the large central penumbra region.
Region 79 (S22E04) has grown rapidly in area and spot count to 310
millionths and 38 spots. New Region 84 (S16E64) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 69 has the potential for major flare
activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
expected interplanetary shock from the M5/CME event on 16 Aug was
observed at the L1 position by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at 18/1810
UTC. A corresponding sudden impulse of 27 nT was recorded on the
Boulder magnetometer at 18/1848 UTC. Greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded event threshold at 18/1420
UTC, reached a maximum value of 1590 pfu at 18/1655 UTC, and fell
below threshold value at 18/1905 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active levels with a chance of isolated
minor storming. Active levels are expected on day one of the
forecast period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day
two and three of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Aug a 21 Aug
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Aug 241 Previsto 19 Aug-21 Aug 245/245/230 Media de 90 Días 18 Aug 168
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Aug 008/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Aug 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 025/025-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Aug a 21 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 01% |
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