Viendo archivo del jueves, 11 julio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 192 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Jul 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 30 (N19E49)
produced a major flare during the period, an impulsive M5/2b flare
occurred at 11/1451 UTC as well as an impulsive M1 x-ray flare at
11/1419 UTC. Multiple C-class flares from this region were also
observed today. This region is by far the most complex region seen
on the visible disk. A beta-gamma-delta magnetic complex, showing
steady penumbral growth. Region 19 (S19W83) has been in slow decay
as it begins to transit the west limb. The remaining spotted
regions have been quiescent or in slow decay. New Region 31
(N10E65) was assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 30 remains complex enough to produce an
isolated major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to isolated
unsettled levels at all latitudes.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels until day two of the
period, where a favorably positioned coronal hole may produce active
conditions. Day three should see a return to quiet to unsettled
conditions.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Jul a 14 Jul
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Jul 136 Previsto 12 Jul-14 Jul 135/135/140 Media de 90 Días 11 Jul 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Jul 007/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Jul 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 008/008-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Jul a 14 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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