Viendo archivo del sábado, 15 junio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jun 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 166 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jun 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been low. The largest event was an
optically uncorrelated C1.7 flare at 15/0058 UTC. Lesser C- and
B-class flare activity occurred in Region 0000 (N18E36), Region 1
(N20E38), and newly numbered Region 3 (N00E63). Region 9997
(N12E31) was combined with former Region 9998 to produce a single
beta-class group of penless spots. Other regions that emerged on
the disk and were numbered today included Region 2 (S24W08) and
Region 4 (S16E10).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. A small chance for an isolated moderate flare
exists for the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet. One isolated unsettled
period was observed at higher latitudes near the end of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| Clase M | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jun 135 Previsto 16 Jun-18 Jun 140/145/145 Media de 90 Días 15 Jun 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jun 004/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jun 003/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 008/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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