Viendo archivo del martes, 21 mayo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 141 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 May 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's largest event was a C4/Sf from Region 9960 (N14E35). A
comparison of white light and magnetogram data indicate that this
region has a small delta configuration. Region 9961 (N14E35) also
produced some C-class subflares today and shows a compact delta in
the leading part of the group. Region 9957 (N09E08) continues to be
the largest group on the disk and also possesses a delta. However,
this region was quiet and stable today, and is beginning to show
signs of decay.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the next three days. The most likely sources for
energetic flare activity are 9957 and 9961, although 9960 could
contribute an isolated M-class event. There is a slight chance for
an X-class flare or proton producing event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was one
period of active conditions from 0600-0900 UTC at high latitudes.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three
days. There is a slight chance for some isolated active periods on
day two (due to the CME of 19/2026 UTC) and on day three due to
possible coronal hole effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 May a 24 May
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 May 186 Previsto 22 May-24 May 180/180/175 Media de 90 Días 21 May 184
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 May 008/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 May 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 005/010-012/012-012/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 May a 24 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 20% | 10% |
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