Viendo archivo del domingo, 5 mayo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 125 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 May 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9934 (S17E21)
produced a C4/Sf flare at 05/0808 UTC. This region has shown some
growth in area, extent and spot count in the last 24 hours. The
delta magnetic configuration in the leader spot shows signs of
simplifying but the region maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
classification. Region 9937 (S09E42) has shown rapid growth over
the last 24 hours with area coverage more than doubling to 210
millionths and spot count is at 10. Region 9929 (N22W53) continues
gradual growth. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 9941
(S22E09), Region 9942 (N22E34), and Region 9943 (S11E63).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9934 has the potential for M-class events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Unsettled conditions are
expected due to the effects of a weak CME shock due to arrive early
on day one of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 May a 08 May
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 May 180 Previsto 06 May-08 May 190/200/205 Media de 90 Días 05 May 188
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 May 004/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 May 006/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 010/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 May a 08 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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