Viendo archivo del domingo, 24 marzo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Mar 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 083 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Mar 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9876
(S15E18) produced a long-duration C5/Sf flare at 24/1754 UTC. This
region showed a minor spot increase near its leader spots, but
showed an overall decrease in area due to a decrease in penumbral
coverage in its trailer spots. It remained moderately complex with
mixed polarities within its trailer portion. Region 9881 (S03W34)
showed minor spot growth and produced a C4/Sf flare at 24/2036 UTC.
Spot growth was also observed in Region 9880 (N07W08), but it
produced no optical flares. Region 9878 (N09E28) retained moderate
magnetic complexity, but showed no significant changes.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There's a fair chance for isolated,
low-level M-class activity during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity increased to active to major storm levels
during 24/0200 - 1200 UTC. Field activity decreased to active to
minor storm levels during 24/1200 - 1800 UTC, then decreased to
mostly unsettled levels for the rest of the period. The increase in
activity coincided with a period of sustained southward IMF Bz
(maximum southerly deflections to minus 12 nT (GSM), as measured by
NASA's ACE spacecraft). The greater than 10 MeV proton event that
began at 22/2020 UTC ended at 23/2030 UTC. The peak flux for this
event was 16 pfu at 23/1320 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 25 March. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected during the rest of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Mar a 27 Mar
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Mar 175 Previsto 25 Mar-27 Mar 170/165/165 Media de 90 Días 24 Mar 210
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Mar 008/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Mar 035/050 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 015/020-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Mar a 27 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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