Viendo archivo del jueves, 21 febrero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Feb 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 052 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Feb 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9825 (N13W90)
continued to be the region of primary concern as it rotated around
the NW limb. The three M-class flares this period all appear to have
originated from this region. The largest was an M3 at 21/1226Z. A
prominence erupted from this area at 21/0608Z, followed by a large
filament eruption at around 21/1100Z. Region 9335 (S09W75) grew
rather quickly this period and produced some small flares as it
approaches the west limb. New Regions 9838 (N05W18), 9839 (S16E06),
and 9840 (S12E72), were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels. We may continue to experience activity
from behind the NW limb for the next day or so. Region 9835 has
potential to produce M-class activity with a small chance for a
major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
protons at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated following the small
proton event that began and ended between 20/0730 - 0800Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through day one.
Active conditions are expected on day two due to an expected CME
passage associated with the M5/1n flare that occurred on 20/0612Z.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to return by day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Feb a 24 Feb
| Clase M | 70% | 65% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Feb 201 Previsto 22 Feb-24 Feb 205/200/200 Media de 90 Días 21 Feb 223
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Feb 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 010/015-015/020-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Feb a 24 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 50% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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