Viendo archivo del viernes, 15 febrero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Feb 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 046 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Feb 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few, low-level C-class
subflares occurred during the past 24 hours. Most of these were from
Region 9825 (N14W13), which is currently largest sunspot group on
the disk. Region 9825 is showing signs of decay and simplification.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is still a chance, however, for an isolated
M-class event from Region 9825.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled tomorrow as there is a
possibility for short-lived effects from a favorably positioned, but
small coronal hole. Mostly unsettled levels with occasional active
periods are expected on the 2nd and 3rd days as a response to
yesterday's partial halo CME from the southeast part of the solar
disk.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Feb a 18 Feb
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Feb 195 Previsto 16 Feb-18 Feb 190/185/185 Media de 90 Días 15 Feb 222
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Feb 002/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Feb 004/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 010/010-015/012-015/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Feb a 18 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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