Viendo archivo del martes, 12 febrero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Feb 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 043 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Feb 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were several C-class
events during the period. The largest of these was an C5/1f long
duration flare at 12/1442 UTC from Region 9825 (N13E29). This
region continues to develop in area and magnetic complexity and is
currently an Eai beta-gamma group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9825 has the potential to produce an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate
levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Feb a 15 Feb
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Feb 208 Previsto 13 Feb-15 Feb 215/215/215 Media de 90 Días 12 Feb 222
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Feb 008/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Feb 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Feb a 15 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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