Viendo archivo del lunes, 14 enero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jan 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 014 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jan 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event of
the period was a long duration M4.4 flare, associated with an
evident CME from a source behind the southwest limb, at 14/0627 UTC.
M-class activity from regions on the visible disk included an M1/2n
from Region 9782 (N07E33) at 14/0156 UTC, and an M1/Sf from Region
9775 (S06W57) at 14/0136 UTC. The largest active region on the
visible disk, Region 9773 (N16W70), appears to be degrading somewhat
as it approaches the west limb, but maintains its moderate size and
magnetic complexity. Region 9782 and nearby Region 9785 (N11E41)
exhibited some increases in areal coverage and magnetic complexity
during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. Isolated major flare activity
is possible from the regions discussed in Section 1A above.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. High speed stream
effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole appeared to wane
with falling solar wind velocities over the course of the period.
Particle fluxes for >10MeV protons and >2MeV electrons were
enhanced, but remained below event thresholds.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Enhancements of
particle fluxes for >10MeV protons or >2MeV electrons could result
in above-threshold events during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jan a 17 Jan
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Protón | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Jan 229 Previsto 15 Jan-17 Jan 235/240/240 Media de 90 Días 14 Jan 224
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Jan 010/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 007/008-007/005-010/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jan a 17 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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