Viendo archivo del viernes, 11 enero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jan 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 011 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Jan 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9767
(S18W87) produced an M1/Sf flare at 11/0807 UTC. This region has
shown signs of slight decay as it approached the west limb. Region
9773 (N15W32) produced four minor C-class flare and remains a
magnetically complex beta-gamma-delta region. There has been growth
in the area coverage of this region but reduced spot count. Two new
regions were numbered today: Region 9781 (S06E64) and Region 9782
(N08E73). Region 9782 is believed to be the return of old Region
9742 which was quite active while on the disc.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with Regions 9773 (N14W32) and 9778 (S16E33) the most
promising flare sites.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels, due to a
high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
that began at 10/2045 utc, reached a tentative maximum of 91 pfu at
11/0530 UTC. The flux is slowly declining.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at unsettled to active levels for the next 48
hours. Strictly unsettled conditions should end the period. The
satellite proton event is expected to continue for at least another
24 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Jan a 14 Jan
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 75% | 50% | 25% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Jan 229 Previsto 12 Jan-14 Jan 230/235/240 Media de 90 Días 11 Jan 223
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Jan 016/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Jan 020/022 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 015/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Jan a 14 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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