Viendo archivo del viernes, 4 enero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jan 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 004 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Jan 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Activity was at moderate levels. New Region 9773
(N14E64) was numbered today. This region produced an M1/Sf flare at
04/1749 UTC. Region 9773 also produced a C3 flare at 04/0952 UTC
with an associated eruptive prominence and Type II radio sweep (537
km/s). SOHO/LASCO imagery does not indicate an Earth directed
component. Region 9767 (S22E08) produced a minor C6/Sf flare at
04/2304 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9767 has the potential for M class events. New
Region 9773 is rotating onto the northeast limb and is showing
signs of increased activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The Geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The >10 MeV proton event
that began on 30/0245 UTC remains in progress, peak flux was 108
pfu at 31/1620 UTC. Stratwarm conditions remains in effect.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Quiet levels are expected on the
first day of the period. A shock arrival from a C5/1f on 03/0220
UTC event is expected to arrive midday on day two of the period.
By day three activity is expected to return to unsettled levels.
The >10 MeV proton event is expected to end late today or early on
day one of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Jan a 07 Jan
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 99% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Jan 218 Previsto 05 Jan-07 Jan 215/210/210 Media de 90 Días 04 Jan 220
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Jan 006/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Jan 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 005/008-008/012-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Jan a 07 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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