Viendo archivo del lunes, 31 diciembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Dec 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 365 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Dec 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9754 (S08W42)
produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive C6/1f flare
at 31/1845 UTC. Region 9767 (S23E60) was the only other source of
optically correlated flare activity during the period, producing
small C-class flares. This region appears to have fully rotated
onto the visible disk doubling reported arial spot coverage from
yesterday's analysis. Other regions on the disk were mostly placid
throughout the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Regions 9767, 9754, and 9751 (S08W42) all have the
potential to produce M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event that began on 30/0245 UTC remains in
progress and reached a maximum of 108 pfu at 31/1620 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A slight chance of
active conditions exist on day one with the potential for a weak
shock passage from the west limb CME of 29 December. The greater
than 10 MeV event is expected to end late on day one of the forecast
period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Jan a 03 Jan
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 99% | 50% | 10% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Dec 246 Previsto 01 Jan-03 Jan 245/240/240 Media de 90 Días 31 Dec 219
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Dec 015/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Dec 008/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 015/015-010/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Jan a 03 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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