Viendo archivo del jueves, 29 noviembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Nov 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 333 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Nov 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 9715 (N05
E04) produced seven C-class flares and two M-class flares. The
largest flare was an M5/1n at 29/1036 UTC. This region remains
magnetically complex as a beta-gamma-delta configuration and has
grown in area coverage, spot number and extent. Region 9715
produced two events with associated Type II Radio sweeps, an M1/Sf
at 29/0149 UTC and a C7/Sf at 29/1405 UTC. Region 9717 (N04E53) and
Region 9718 (S07E58) have shown some minor activity producing a
single C-class flare and two C-class flares respectively..
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9715 has the potential to produce a major
M-class flare or possibly an X-class flare. Region 9718 has also
shown signs of growth and could produce M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Quiet levels are expected for the
first day of the period. Late on day two or early on day three the
CME Shock from the M6/1b at 28/1635 UTC is expected to arrive at
Earth. With the arrival of this shock the geomagnetic field is
expected to reach active levels with isolated minor storm conditions
at higher latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Nov a 02 Dec
| Clase M | 80% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Nov 216 Previsto 30 Nov-02 Dec 210/215/220 Media de 90 Días 29 Nov 218
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Nov 003/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Nov 004/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 006/005-012/015-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Nov a 02 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 10% |
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