Viendo archivo del domingo, 25 noviembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Nov 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 329 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Nov 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9704 (S18W74) produced
an impulsive X1 flare at 25/0951 UTC (optically correlated using SXI
imagery). SOHO/LASCO imagery did not reveal a CME signature with
this major flare, negating geoeffective potential. Even with the
loss of the delta magnetic classification, this region remains the
principle source of flare activity and produced numerous C-class
flares during the period. Region 9715 (N06E58) has shown some
growth in complexity over the period and produced several minor
optical flares. New Region 9716 (S04E73) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9704 remains capable of producing an
isolated major flare before it transits the west limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated period of active (24/2100-25/0000 UTC). The greater than
10 MeV proton event and associated polar cap absorption remained in
progress at the end of the period (proton flux peaked to 18900 pfu
at 24/0555 UTC). A moderate (10.2 percent based on the Thule
neutron monitor) Forbush decrease began shortly after the beginning
of forecast period and peaked near 25/0040 UTC, ended near 25/0300
UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through days one and
two, becoming quiet to active on day three with the recurrence of a
geoeffective coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to end late on the 26th, as it continues to slowly
decrease.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Nov a 28 Nov
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 95% | 50% | 10% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Nov 170 Previsto 26 Nov-28 Nov 170/170/175 Media de 90 Días 25 Nov 218
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Nov 076/108 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Nov 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 008/008-010/010-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Nov a 28 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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