Viendo archivo del jueves, 15 noviembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Nov 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 319 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Nov 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9690 (S17W60)
produced an M1/1f at 14/2211Z with minor centimetric bursts. Other
minor C-class events were observed in this region which continues to
gradually decay. Minor C-class flares were also observed in
developing Regions 9703 (N23W01), and 9704 (S18E56). Region 9697
(N13E20) is in a slow growth phase and now exceeds 300 millionths of
white light area coverage. Some plage fluctuations were observed,
but no significant magnetic complexity exist at this time.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate levels. Region 9690 is the best source for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Quiet conditions were
predominant until a small sudden impulse (SI) of 6 nT was observed
on the Boulder magnetometer at 15/1509Z. Unsettled to active
conditions prevailed since the SI.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods at mostly higher latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Nov a 18 Nov
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Nov 207 Previsto 16 Nov-18 Nov 205/205/195 Media de 90 Días 15 Nov 216
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Nov 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Nov a 18 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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