Viendo archivo del sábado, 27 octubre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 300 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Oct 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9672 (S18W53)
and Region 9678 (N07W07) produced 6 C-class flares. Region 9682
(N12E45) produced the largest flare, a C7/Sf at 27/1529 UTC. Region
9672 remains complex with only a minor reduction is area coverage to
450 millionths. Region 9678 has ceased its rapid growth but remains
complex and has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 9682
has shown significant growth and increased in magnetic complexity to
a beta-gamma-delta configuration. New Region 9684 (N05E78) was
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 9672, 9678, and 9682 all have the
potential for a major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to major storm levels. The CME shock from
the X1/2b flare on 25/1502 UTC is expected early on the first day of
the period. Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on the
first day of the period with possible major storm levels at the
higher latitudes. Quiet to Active levels are expected on day two
and three of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Oct a 30 Oct
| Clase M | 75% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Oct 247 Previsto 28 Oct-30 Oct 250/245/245 Media de 90 Días 27 Oct 199
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Oct 006/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Oct 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 035/030-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Oct a 30 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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