Viendo archivo del viernes, 26 octubre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 26 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 299 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Oct 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9678
(N11E07) was quite active producing six C-class flares and one M2/Sn
flare at 26/1435 UTC. Radio sweeps at numerous discrete frequencies
were reported with the M2/Sn flare. This region continued rapid
growth in area coverage to 680 millionths, spot count to 48, and
remains a magnetically complex beta-gamma-delta configuration.
Region 9672 (S18W41) was also active producing four C-class and one
minor M-class flares. As Region 9682 (N11E59) rotates onto the disc
it has developed into a major region with good potential for
activity. New Region 9683 (N28E30) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar Activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is also a chance of an isolated major
flare from Regions 9672, 9678, and 9682. Region 9672 still
maintains a complex magnetic configuration and it has not diminished
in size or complexity. Continued rapid growth and complexity of
Region 9678 makes this region a potential source for a major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. A coronal hole / high
speed stream has begun to rotate into a geoeffective position.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to major storm levels. The shock arrival
from the X1/2b CME on 25/1502 UTC is expected to arrive late on day
one or early on day two of the period. Shock arrival is expected to
produce unsettled to minor storm level activity for day one and two
of the period. Major storm levels are possible particularly at the
higher latitudes. Coronal hole / high speed stream may keep
activity at unsettled levels on day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Oct a 29 Oct
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 Oct 237 Previsto 27 Oct-29 Oct 230/225/220 Media de 90 Días 26 Oct 197
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 25 Oct 005/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 26 Oct 006/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 020/020-030/030-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Oct a 29 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 10% |
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