Viendo archivo del lunes, 8 octubre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 281 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Oct 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Only a couple of
minor C-class flares occurred during the period. The most
significant event of the day was an optically uncorrelated C4 flare
at 08/0819 UTC. A Type II radio sweep with a shock speed of 581
km/s accompanied this flare. New Region 9657 (N23E70) was numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Isolated M-class events are possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active periods between 08/1200 and 1800 UTC. High speed stream
effects are believed to be responsible for the slightly elevated
field levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods due
to high speed stream effects for the first day of the period. The
long duration C2/Sf flare and filament eruption on 06/1713 UTC
likely had an associated coronal mass ejection that may create
active periods on days two and three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Oct a 11 Oct
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 Oct 171 Previsto 09 Oct-11 Oct 165/170/170 Media de 90 Días 08 Oct 182
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 Oct 001/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 Oct 012/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 015/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Oct a 11 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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