Viendo archivo del sábado, 6 octubre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 279 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Oct 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class
event during the period. An optically uncorrelated M2 flare occurred
at 06/0525 UTC. This event also produced a Coronal Mass Ejection
(CME) off of the sun's west limb as seen in LASCO imagery. This CME
should not be geoeffective. Region 9641 (S13W48) produced a C3/1f
flare at 05/2120 UTC. This event also produced a south-west oriented
CME. Again, this CME should not be geoeffective. The only other
activity of note during the period was a C3/1f flare from Region
9648 (S07E22).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with an isolated chance of an M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
elevated levels but below the proton event threshold of 10 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. Active
conditions are possible on the third day due to a recurrent coronal
hole and its resulting high stream impacting earth.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Oct a 09 Oct
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Oct 180 Previsto 07 Oct-09 Oct 170/170/175 Media de 90 Días 06 Oct 181
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Oct 010/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Oct 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 008/012-008/012-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Oct a 09 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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