Viendo archivo del jueves, 20 septiembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Sep 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 263 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Sep 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. A M1.5/Sn
occurred in new Region 9631 (N08W15) which has been active since
its emergence. Six C-class flares also occurred during the period,
the largest a C7.8 in Region 9628 (S18E51). Region 9628 has
increased in magnetic complexity to a Beta-Gamma and increased in
spot count. Region 9620 (N12E17) has also increased in magnetic
complexity to a Beta-Gamma. New Region 9630 (N27W36) and Region
9632 (S18E76) were also numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9628 and Region 9620 are becoming more complex
and could produce M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions may
occur early in the period due to a CME observed on 18 SEP O1.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Sep a 23 Sep
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Sep 227 Previsto 21 Sep-23 Sep 230/230/230 Media de 90 Días 20 Sep 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Sep 008/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Sep 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 012/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Sep a 23 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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