Viendo archivo del miércoles, 29 agosto 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 241 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Aug 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9600 (N17E58)
produced two M1 x-ray events during the period. Region 9600 and 9601
(N12E58) are very close to each other in location and have produced
sympathetic flaring between the two regions. Region 9591 (S19W20)
still retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and a fairly
large area of approximately 590 millionths. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. An isolated major flare is possible from Regions 9591,
9600, and 9601.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first two days of the
forecast period. Active conditions can be expected on the third day
due to recurrent coronal hole activity.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Aug a 01 Sep
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Aug 197 Previsto 30 Aug-01 Sep 200/200/205 Media de 90 Días 29 Aug 155
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Aug 006/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Aug 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 010/010-010/010-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Aug a 01 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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