Viendo archivo del lunes, 27 agosto 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 239 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Aug 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. An M1 flare was
observed at 27/0638 UTC. The LASCO images indicate the event was
possibly from new Region 9601 (N10E85). Region 9591 (S18E07)
remains strong and continues its beta-gamma-delta configuration.
Four new regions were numbered today as regions 9598 (S18W75), 9599
(S18E65), 9600 (N17E82), and 9601.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9591 is capable of producing M-class events with
an isolated major flare possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. A shock passed the
ACE spacecraft at 27/1920 UTC and created a sudden impulse of 37 nt
at the Earth at 27/1952 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to active to minor storm conditions on 28 August as a
result of the X5 event on 25 August. Unsettled to active conditions
are expected on 29 August with quiet to unsettled conditions
returning on 30 August.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Aug a 30 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Aug 192 Previsto 28 Aug-30 Aug 195/200/200 Media de 90 Días 27 Aug 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Aug 009/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Aug 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 030/030-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Aug a 30 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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