Viendo archivo del lunes, 13 agosto 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 225 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Aug 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Most flare activity was
optically uncorrelated, including the largest event, a C4.6 flare at
13/1405 UTC. Region 9574 (S05W38) produced the only optically
correlated event for the period, a C1/Sf at 13/1921 UTC. This
region has exhibited a moderate increase in magnetic complexity, and
is currently the largest active region on the disk, now in an
Eki/beta-gamma configuration with 20 spots and 370 millionths areal
coverage.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9574 is a potential source of isolated
moderate-level flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels,
due to the ongoing influence of yesterday's shock passage from the
CME activity of 09 August. Some additional influence from a weak
high speed stream appears to have also developed over the past 12
hours, with mainly unsettled conditions occurring over that period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours, then
tapering off to quiet to unsettled conditions thereafter, as the
combined influence of CME passage and weak high speed stream effects
wane during the course of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Aug a 16 Aug
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Aug 152 Previsto 14 Aug-16 Aug 150/145/140 Media de 90 Días 13 Aug 151
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Aug 011/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Aug 020/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 015/015-012/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Aug a 16 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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