Viendo archivo del domingo, 17 junio 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Jun 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 168 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Jun 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Today's largest event was
a C3 at 2242 UTC which was not seen optically. Region 9503 (N14E20)
is currently the largest group on the disk, and shows continued
growth, enhanced plage and occasional brightenings. Region 9501
(S13W11) has also shown growth during the past 24 hours. Region 9502
(S25E05) continues to have an east-west inversion line, but appeared
to be a bit cooler today than previously. Region 9506 (N17E48) has
rotated into view as a beta-gamma group, but was relatively calm and
stable. Two filaments disappeared during the past 24 hours: a 14
degree filament near S27W11, and a 28 degree filament near N30E55.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. There is a slight chance,
however, for an isolated major flare event, particularly from 9503
and 9506.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Quiet
conditions prevailed during the first 15 hours of the period, but
activity increased to unsettled to slightly active between 1200-2100
UTC. Solar wind signatures showed some kind of transient type flow
from 0300-1600 UTC which was accompanied be moderately negative
interplanetary Bz.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field for the
next 24 hours is expected to be mostly unsettled, but with a chance
for isolated active periods. Unsettled levels should prevail on the
second day, and activity should drop to quiet to unsettled levels by
the third day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Jun a 20 Jun
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Jun 205 Previsto 18 Jun-20 Jun 200/200/195 Media de 90 Días 17 Jun 172
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Jun 004/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Jun 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 015/015-010/010-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Jun a 20 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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