Viendo archivo del jueves, 10 mayo 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 May 10 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 130 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 May 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours. Two noteworthy C-class events occurred during the day. The first was a C5 which started at 0105 UTC, reached maximum at 0203 UTC, and ended at 0443 UTC. There were no observations of corresponding disk activity, but there was a CME just behind the Northwest limb of the Sun that could be reasonably associated with the event. The other was a C6 with start-max-end times of 1448-1519-1547 UTC: newly assigned Region 9454 (N15E74) was seen to brighten in H-alpha during the event, and a CME became visible on the East limb in C2 observations at 1530 UTC. A type II sweep was also associated with this event. New Region 9454 is now the largest sunspot group on the disk with an area of 300 millionths in an Eao-Beta configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 9454.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. An initially active geomagnetic field reached minor storm levels between 0000-0900 UTC. Conditions declined thereafter and were quiet to unsettled during the last nine hours of the day.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 May a 13 May
Clase M20%20%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       10 May 130
  Previsto   11 May-13 May  135/135/135
  Media de 90 Días        10 May 168
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 09 May  019/032
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 10 May  028/035
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 May a 13 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%30%30%
Tormenta Menor25%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%25%25%
Tormenta Menor30%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%10%

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