Viendo archivo del domingo, 28 enero 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Jan 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 028 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Jan 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9313 (S04W64) produced a long-duration M1/1n at 28/1603 UTC
associated with a halo CME. Region 9313 showed significant decay
prior to the flare. Occasional C-class flares occurred during the
rest of the period. The remaining regions were either stable or
declining. New Region 9328 (N06W58) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class
flare sometime during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. An isolated
active period occurred during 28/1200 - 1500 UTC. A proton event at
greater than 10 MeV began at 28/2025 UTC following the M1/1n flare
from Region 9313. By the close of the period, the greater than 10
MeV flux reached 23.1 pfu and was gradually increasing. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels late in the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 30 - 31
January in response to today's halo CME. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to end early on 29 January. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux may again reach high levels during the
first half of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Jan a 31 Jan
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Jan 168 Previsto 29 Jan-31 Jan 165/160/160 Media de 90 Días 28 Jan 174
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Jan 002/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Jan 007/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 007/004-010/008-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Jan a 31 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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