Viendo archivo del miércoles, 20 diciembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Dec 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 355 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Dec 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Regions 9272
(N14W59), 9278 (N09E23), and 9279 (S13E41) each produced isolated,
low-level C-class subflares. No significant changes were observed in
any of the sunspot groups. Region 9280 (N08E61), which was stable
during the period, may possess a moderate degree of magnetic
complexity (beta-gamma structure), but analysis was difficult due to
limb proximity. New Region 9281 (N07E39) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Regions 9278 or 9280.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity has been at quiet levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during the first
two days of the period due to an expected CME passage. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on the final day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Dec a 23 Dec
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Dec 201 Previsto 21 Dec-23 Dec 200/195/195 Media de 90 Días 20 Dec 176
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Dec 002/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Dec 004/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 015/020-020/025-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Dec a 23 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 01% |
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