Viendo archivo del domingo, 12 noviembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Nov 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 317 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Nov 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Region 9227 (S11W02) produced today's largest event, a C4/1f flare
at 1426Z. This group continues to show slow growth and is currently
the largest group on the disk at 180 millionths. The other active
regions on the disk were stable and quiet.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a slight chance for an isolated M-class
event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Unsettled
to active levels prevailed for most of the period, but there was a 3
hour minor storm interval from 0300-0600Z. Solar wind observations
indicate the presence of a high speed stream associated with a
favorably positioned, transequatorial coronal hole. The greater than
10 MeV proton event continued to show flux levels above threshold
throughout the period with a very slow decline. The current greater
than 10 MeV flux at 12/2100Z observed by GOES-8 was 12.4 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours. A decline
to mostly unsettled is expected during the second and third days.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end before the
end of 12 November (UTC time).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Nov a 15 Nov
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 50% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Nov 147 Previsto 13 Nov-15 Nov 145/140/140 Media de 90 Días 12 Nov 172
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Nov 011/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Nov 021/023 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 015/018-012/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Nov a 15 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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