Viendo archivo del jueves, 26 octubre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Oct 26 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 300 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Oct 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Region 9209 (S24E59)
produced a C8/1n flare at 1611 UTC, the largest event of the period.
It also had other, smaller C-class flares. The other area of
activity was the northwest limb, where a C6/sf erupted from a swath
of spotless plage near N17W77. That flare occurred at 1137 UTC. One
new region, 9210 (S30E74) rotated into view.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9209 may produce an isolated M-class event
during the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A proton event at
greater than 10 MeV began at 0040 UTC, reached a maximum of 15 pfu
at 0340 UTC, and ended at 1000 UTC. This activity is related to the
CME off the west limb near midday on the 25th.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled for the next 36-48 hours.
A mild disturbance from yesterday's halo CME is anticipated to begin
late on the 28th. Active conditions are possible through the end of
the period as the magnetosphere takes an oblique hit from the solar
ejection.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Oct a 29 Oct
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 Oct 171 Previsto 27 Oct-29 Oct 175/175/180 Media de 90 Días 26 Oct 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 25 Oct 009/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 26 Oct 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 010/010-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Oct a 29 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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