Viendo archivo del martes, 3 octubre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Oct 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 277 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Oct 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C4/Sf
at 02/2131Z from region 9182 (S02E63). Region 9177 (N28W68)
produced a C1/Sf flare at 03/0736Z with an associated type II radio
sweep (shock speed 400 km/s). A few small C-class flares punctuated
the remainder of the day. New regions 9183 (S31W32) and 9184
(S15E60) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm
conditions, with isolated major storm conditions at high latitudes.
Data from the ACE spacecraft showed the signature of a solar
transient beginning at approximately 03/00Z, although a clear shock
was not evident. The Boulder magnetometer registered a sudden
impulse of 11 nanoteslas at 03/0057Z. This transient is possibly
due to the C3/Sf flare observed at 01/1304Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with minor storming possible for the
first two days of the forecast period. Effects from a CME seen
yesterday are expected over the first two days. By day three the
field should be quiet to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Oct a 06 Oct
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Oct 192 Previsto 04 Oct-06 Oct 190/185/185 Media de 90 Días 03 Oct 184
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Oct 006/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Oct 025/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 015/015-020/020-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Oct a 06 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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