Viendo archivo del martes, 1 agosto 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Aug 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 214 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 AUG 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C2 EVENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO
SWEEP AT 01/0346Z. THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FROM
AN ACTIVE REGION JUST BEHIND THE NORTHEAST LIMB. REGION 9104
(S19W01) EXHIBITED SOME GROWTH TODAY, AND NEW REGION 9111 (N10E28)
WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT LOW LEVELS THROUGH DAY TWO, WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF MODERATE
FLARES. A GREATER CHANCE OF MODERATE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY DAY
THREE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. AN
ISOLATED PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING WAS OBSERVED AT HIGHER LATITUDES
DURING 31/2100-2400Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGH DAY ONE.
QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS, ARE EXPECTED FOR DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 AUG a 04 AUG
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 AUG 149 Previsto 02 AUG-04 AUG 155/165/180 Media de 90 Días 01 AUG 189
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 JUL 017/019 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 AUG 014/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 AUG-04 AUG 014/012-010/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 AUG a 04 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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