Viendo archivo del lunes, 19 junio 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jun 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 171 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 JUN 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
TODAY'S ACTIVITY CONSISTED OF A FEW, LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES.
REGION 9042 (N23W11) WAS ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE SUN,
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SUBFLARE ACTIVITY. REGION 9046 (N21E19) IS THE
LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK (570 MILLIONTHS), BUT COULD ONLY MUSTER
ONE SUBFLARE. A FILAMENT OF ABOUT 30 DEGREES LENGTH ERUPTED FROM THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE DISK LATE ON THE 18TH. A CME WAS SUBSEQUENTLY
OBSERVED TO ENTER THE LASCO/C2 FIELD OF VIEW CLOSE TO THE NORTH
SOLAR POLE AT 18/2140Z. THE TRANSIENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
EARTHBOUND.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 9042 AND 9046 ARE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR
M-CLASS LEVEL ACTIVITY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE
OR A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 JUN a 22 JUN
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 JUN 178 Previsto 20 JUN-22 JUN 180/180/180 Media de 90 Días 19 JUN 187
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUN 010/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUN 007/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUN-22 JUN 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 JUN a 22 JUN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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