Viendo archivo del sábado, 17 junio 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jun 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 169 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 JUN 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9033 (N24W77)
PRODUCED AN M3/2B FLARE AT 17/0237Z. THE SOHO/LASCO C2 IMAGERY
OBSERVED A CME DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE WAS ALSO A 16 DEGREE
LONG FILAMENT THAT DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 16/1621Z AND 17/1347Z WHICH
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED
TODAY AS REGION 9050 (S13E06) AND REGION 9051 (N16E61).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL
REGIONS INCLUDING REGION 9033, 9042 (N22E16) AND 9046 (N19E44).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS FOR
QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED ON DAY THREE AS A RESULT OF TODAY'S M3/2B AND CME FROM
REGION 9033.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 JUN a 20 JUN
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 JUN 193 Previsto 18 JUN-20 JUN 190/185/180 Media de 90 Días 17 JUN 188
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JUN 005/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUN 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUN-20 JUN 020/025-010/015-008/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 JUN a 20 JUN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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