Viendo archivo del jueves, 18 mayo 2000

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 18 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 139 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 MAY 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 9002 (N18E31) PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M2/2B FLARE AT 18/1557Z ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THIS REGION SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE PERIOD AND REMAINED A LARGE REGION WITH A MIXED-POLARITY STRUCTURE. REGION 8998 (S13E04), A MODERATE-SIZED MIXED-POLARITY GROUP, PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES AND SHOWED GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. REGION 8996 (S21W09) REMAINED THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK WITH AN AREA EXCEEDING 1200 MILLIONTHS AND RETAINED A MIXED-POLARITY STRUCTURE. IT PRODUCED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. NEW REGIONS 9009 (S15E68) AND 9010 (N16E74) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS. ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE PERIODS POSSIBLE DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 MAY a 21 MAY
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       18 MAY 253
  Previsto   19 MAY-21 MAY  260/265/265
  Media de 90 Días        18 MAY 193
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 MAY  020/022
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 MAY  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 MAY-21 MAY  012/012-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 MAY a 21 MAY
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%30%30%
Tormenta Menor10%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%35%35%
Tormenta Menor15%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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