Viendo archivo del viernes, 5 mayo 2000

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 05 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 126 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 MAY 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. A LONG DURATION M1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 05/1621Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. IMAGERY FROM THE SOHO/LASCO SPACECRAFT INDICATED A CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) OCCURRED BEHIND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS EVENT. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO HAVE ERUPTED FROM REGION 8970, NOW AT APPROXIMATELY S14W120. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK CONTINUUM WAS ALSO REPORTED. OTHERWISE, ONLY A COUPLE MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED. NO SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OR DECAY WAS NOTED IN THE REGIONS ON THE DISK. NEW REGIONS 8984 (S16E13), 8985 (N13E51), AND 8986 (S19E45) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH TWO ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS OBSERVED AT 05/0600-0900Z AND 05/1500-1800Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS ENHANCED DURING PART OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 MAY a 08 MAY
Clase M20%20%25%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       05 MAY 130
  Previsto   06 MAY-08 MAY  130/135/145
  Media de 90 Días        05 MAY 188
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 MAY  005/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 MAY  012/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 MAY-08 MAY  015/014-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 MAY a 08 MAY
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%25%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%35%30%
Tormenta Menor15%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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