Viendo archivo de sábado, 19 febrero 2000

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 050 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 FEB 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8869 (S20W49). REGION 8869 WAS BY FAR THE MOST ACTIVE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8869 PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 19/1547UT AND A C8/SF FLARE AT 19/0633UT. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. SINCE THE PREVIOUS PERIOD, REGION 8869 SHOWED A 50% GROWTH IN AREA AND NEARLY DOUBLED THE NUMBER OF SPOTS, FROM 26 TO 44. ITS MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX, DEVELOPING INTO A BETA-GAMMA CLASSIFICATION. AN UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP WAS OBSERVED AT 19/0844UT WITH A REPORTED SPEED OF 1200 KM/S. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8869. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH A SINGLE UNSETTLED PERIOD OBSERVED AT 19/09-1200UT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORMING LEVELS FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD, WITH POSSIBLE MAJOR STORMING AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RESULT FROM THE SHOCK OF A FULL-HALO CME PRODUCED BY THE M2/2N EVENT ON FEBRUARY 17TH. THE THIRD DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS BECOMING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 FEB a 22 FEB
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       19 FEB 145
  Previsto   20 FEB-22 FEB  140/135/135
  Media de 90 Días        19 FEB 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 FEB  002/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 FEB  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 FEB-22 FEB  030/025-030/050-015/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 FEB a 22 FEB
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo50%50%30%
Tormenta Menor30%30%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%40%
Tormenta Menor50%50%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa25%25%10%

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