Viendo archivo del miércoles, 2 febrero 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Feb 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 033 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 FEB 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. ONE OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS X-RAY FLARE WAS DETECTED. REGION 8851
(N26E03) CONTINUED TO SHOW MINOR GROWTH, BUT REMAINED SMALL AND
SIMPLY-STRUCTURED. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE SMALL, SIMPLE, AND
STABLE INCLUDING NEWLY NUMBERED REGIONS 8855 (N15E57) AND 8856
(S15E82).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER, AN INCREASING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON
05 FEBRUARY WITH THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD REGION 8824 (S13, L =
175).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 FEB a 05 FEB
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 FEB 144 Previsto 03 FEB-05 FEB 150/155/170 Media de 90 Días 02 FEB 174
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 FEB 005/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 FEB 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 FEB-05 FEB 005/010-005/005-007/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 FEB a 05 FEB
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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