Viendo archivo del lunes, 31 enero 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jan 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 031 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 JAN 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. MINOR GROWTH
OCCURRED WITHIN REGIONS 8848 (S09E13) AND 8851 (N27E29), BUT BOTH
REMAINED SMALL AND SIMPLY STRUCTURED. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE
UNREMARKABLE. NEW REGION 8852 (N10E14) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY VARIED BETWEEN QUIET AND UNSETTLED LEVELS.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE WILL
BE A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD DURING THE FIRST DAY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 FEB a 03 FEB
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 JAN 139 Previsto 01 FEB-03 FEB 140/140/140 Media de 90 Días 31 JAN 174
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JAN 012/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 JAN 008/006 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 FEB-03 FEB 012/010-010/010-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 FEB a 03 FEB
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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