Viendo archivo del domingo, 14 noviembre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Nov 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 318 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 NOV 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. SEVERAL M-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8763 (S16E18) PRODUCED AN M8/2B
AT 13/0801Z, REGION 8766 (N17E57) PRODUCED AN M5/2N AT 13/1607Z,
REGION 8765 (S14E32) PRODUCED AN M2/SN AT 13/1623Z, REGION 8759
(N12W20) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 13/1704Z, AND ONE OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED M2 OCCURRED AT 13/1809Z. REGION 8765 IS THE LARGEST
REGION ON THE DISK WITH AN AREA OF 640 MILLIONTHS. THE MOST DYNAMIC
REGION IS REGION 8766 WHICH CONTAINS A STRONG DELTA CONFIGURATION.
TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8767 (N44W28) AND
REGION 8768 (N16E33).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGIONS 8759, 8763, 8765, AND 8766
ALL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS EVENTS AND AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET TO ACTIVE. MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE NIGHTTIME
SECTORS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 NOV a 17 NOV
| Clase M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Clase X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 NOV 219 Previsto 15 NOV-17 NOV 215/210/210 Media de 90 Días 14 NOV 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 NOV 022/031 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 NOV 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 NOV-17 NOV 008/015-010/018-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 NOV a 17 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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