Viendo archivo del sábado, 13 noviembre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Nov 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 317 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 NOV 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8763 (S14E32)
PRODUCED TWO LONG DURATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS A
M1/1F AT 13/0258Z AND THE SECOND WAS A C6/1F AT 13/1623Z. THIS
REGION HAS DECREASED IN AREA FROM YESTERDAY BUT HAS MAINTAINED A
STRONG MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS PRODUCED SUBFLARES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. REGION 8760 (N14W45) REMAINS THE LARGEST
REGION ON THE SOLAR DISK WITH AN AREA OF 570 MILLIONTHS. A NEW
REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8766 (N18E68).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS HAVE M-CLASS FLARE POTENTIAL
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES AT 13/1500Z AND 13/2100Z. PROLONGED
PERIODS OF NEGATIVE BZ IN THE SOLAR WIND HAVE LED TO THESE
CONDITIONS. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THE FIRST DAY AS A CONSEQUENCE OF ONGOING
SOUTHWARD BZ IN THE SOLAR WIND.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 NOV a 16 NOV
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 NOV 224 Previsto 14 NOV-16 NOV 220/215/210 Media de 90 Días 13 NOV 161
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 NOV 013/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 NOV 020/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 NOV-16 NOV 008/012-008/012-010/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 NOV a 16 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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