Viendo archivo del sábado, 30 octubre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Oct 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 303 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 OCT 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW WEAK C-CLASS X-RAY
FLARES OCCURRED, THE LARGEST BEING A C1. REGION 8751 (N20E66) WAS
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. ALTHOUGH THE NUMBER OF SUNSPOT GROUPS IS HIGH, NONE OF THEM
ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OR ACTIVITY. REGION 8739 (S10W64)
REMAINS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX GROUP, BUT IS STILL UNDERGOING
A SLOW DECAY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SINCE YESTERDAY
BZ MAGNITUDE HAS DECREASED AND IS NOW FLUCTUATING AROUND ZERO; THIS
HAS RESULTED IN LOWER MAGNETIC ACTIVITY THAN SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
REACHED HIGH LEVELS FROM APPROXIMATELY 1330-1600Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 OCT a 02 NOV
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 OCT 169 Previsto 31 OCT-02 NOV 165/160/150 Media de 90 Días 30 OCT 157
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 OCT 009/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 OCT 008/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 OCT-02 NOV 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 OCT a 02 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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