Viendo archivo del sábado, 16 octubre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Oct 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 289 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 OCT 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8731
(N12W03) SHOWED MINOR GROWTH INCLUDING THE RE-FORMATION OF A
MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION NEAR REGION CENTER. IT PRODUCED
ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8728 (N23W26)
ALSO PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES, BUT WAS STABLE IN TERMS OF
SIZE AND MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE EITHER
STABLE OR DECLINING. NEW REGION 8735 (N18E40) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8731 PROVIDES A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR
FLARE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY VARIED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
DUE TO CONTINUING CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST
DAY WITH A DECREASING TREND AS CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LAST TWO
DAYS OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 OCT a 19 OCT
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 OCT 189 Previsto 30 DEC-16 OCT 185/185/180 Media de 90 Días 16 OCT 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 OCT 017/024 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 OCT 020/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 OCT-19 OCT 015/015-012/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 OCT a 19 OCT
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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